New research details the major potential changes for New York and the nation if President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs take effect.

A Tax Foundation report found tariffs Trump implemented in his first term have kept prices "unreasonably high," tariffs former President Joe Biden maintained.

And a report from the Urban Institute's Tax Policy Center and the Brookings Institution predicts the proposed tariffs would have a 5% to 10% effect on New York's gross domestic product.

Melinda St. Louis, director of Global Trade Watch for the nonprofit consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, doesn't think President Trump is using tariffs effectively.

"Tariffs can play a constructive role in protecting U.S. jobs and enforcing labor and environmental standards when they're part of a strategic industrial policy," St. Louis acknowledged. "But Trump is not doing that. His approach is to use tariffs to bully countries."

She pointed out the tariffs threatened against Mexico and Canada would have significant effects because they are some of the largest importers of U.S. goods. Throughout his campaign, Donald Trump proposed 25% tariffs on both countries. The Tax Foundation's report estimates such tariffs, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, would cut economic output and raise U.S. taxes by more than $1 trillion in the next decade.

While some tariffs are being used to bolster Trump's "America First" agenda, others are being used to handle immigration. He threatened 25% tariffs on Columbia so the country would accept two military planes full of migrants. St. Louis argued tariffs should be paired with strategic industrial policy.

"You must invest in U.S. manufacturing at the same time that you are imposing, potentially, tariffs to address unfair trade practices and punish bad corporate behavior that's pushing a race to the bottom, in terms of labor and environmental conditions," St. Louis contended.

The tariff threats come as the President has also paused federal funding and loans for some programs, which is expected to restrict projects funded by the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Research showed it could affect manufacturing jobs and cost America a chance at energy independence, even as conservative states are seeing the greatest benefits from the funding.


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A report indicated layoffs in federal agencies by the ad hoc Department of Government Efficiency could affect a significant number of Ohioans and substantially undercut the state's budget.

There are approximately 114,000 federal employees in the state. A Center for Community Solutions study found if all federal employees in Ohio were to lose their jobs, the unemployment rate would increase by almost 40%.

Dylan Armstrong, public policy fellow at the Center for Community Solutions, said it would have a profound effect on many state agencies and potentially cause service interruptions.

"For federal fiscal year 2021, almost $58 billion of investments through all the different federal agencies," Armstrong pointed out. "The state doesn't have the capacity to replace those dollars. No one has the capacity to replace the dollars."

The report examined federal employment and funding by Ohio congressional districts. Armstrong noted Congressional District 6 in Appalachian East Ohio receives the most federal funding, at $6.4 billion, while District 10, with Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, has 20,000 federal employees.

Armstrong underscored the three largest federal agency outlays in Ohio are from the Departments of Education, Agriculture and Health and Human Services. He said H-S cuts could have the most ripple effects, as they fund programs such as Medicaid, assistance to families, Head Start and research at universities and medical institutions.

"If there's researchers at a university in Ohio who are receiving federal funding from the National Institutes of Health to do a research project, if that funding dries up that's their job," Armstrong stressed. "That's how they get paid. That's how they do their research."

The report showed 76% of federal resources in Ohio are distributed through state, township, county or other local government districts. Armstrong added those entities would be responsible for making up the loss of revenue.

"At the end of the day, you'd need more revenue and that can only come from so many places," Armstrong acknowledged. "A likely place would have to be increasing taxes on taxpayers if we wanted to continue to have the same level of service."

Reporting by Ohio News Connection in association with Media in the Public Interest and funded in part by the George Gund Foundation.


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South Dakota farmers leading the "locally grown" movement have visions of a dynamic regional food production system but some of it is in doubt with looming federal cuts.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is swept up in the Trump administration's downsizing of federal agencies, including cancellation of the Local Food Purchase Assistance Cooperative Agreement Program for food banks to buy local produce at a market rate. Grants from the Regional Food Business Center program are also in limbo.

Stephanie Peterson, a funding recipient who operates a small egg-producing farm called Fruit of the Coop near Sioux Falls, said she is unsure she will get the rest of her money to scale up.

"The pandemic showed us the fragility of our industrial ag system, and how important it is to build up and focus on these regional and local systems," Peterson contended.

But after pouring her heart and soul into this seven-acre farm, Peterson wonders if the dream will slip out of her hands. It would mean local restaurants would have one less option for buying eggs at a time when avian flu is disrupting supply chains. The USDA has resumed funding for some initiatives but the department's top official has categorized certain local food programs as "nonessential."

The group Dakota Rural Action said ending the purchasing program for food banks affects nearly 30 farmers around the state.

Kjersten Oudman, owner of Blue Sky Vegetable Company, makes produce deliveries on behalf of a regional food hub. She said she is sad her local food shelf will lose out on some fresh and healthier options.

"We were one of the few deliveries that was giving it potatoes, cabbage, carrots or microgreens," Oudman explained. "I am most upset that people who need good, healthy, nutrient-dense food may not be able to get it."

On the business side of things, Oudman worries specialty farmers in South Dakota will lose ground in attracting new customers and markets for their products.

"We're pretty behind a lot of our other states in our infrastructure," Oudman pointed out. "There's just a lot of uncertainty and a lot of questioning of (if) grant programs do not come through, what do our businesses need to do in order to continue pushing for development?"

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy is joining forces with the so-called Department of Government Efficiency to cut costs at the Postal Service, this week announcing plans to cut 10,000 workers, amid other reforms.

Kentucky has lost postal service offices at higher rates than other states, especially in rural and Appalachian counties.

Mark Dimondstein, president of the American Postal Workers Union, said older adults, veterans and others depend on the service's commitment to deliver mail to everyone, regardless of where they live, noting the Postal Service delivers to every address in the country, 169 million addresses and 318 million pieces of mail, every day. Local unions in Kentucky are participating in a National Day of Action on Thursday.

"Part of the effort on Thursday is to make the postal customers around the country fully aware of this threat to what belongs to them," Dimondstein explained.

In a letter to Congress, DeJoy said the agency needs help with lease renewals on its retail centers and tackling the issue of counterfeit postage. The Trump administration has also floated the idea of privatizing the post office. Supporters argued the change would make the Postal Service run more efficiently and save money.

Polling from the Pew Research Center finds 72% of Americans have a favorable view of the Postal Service.

Dimondstein pointed out more than five decades ago, postal workers won collective bargaining rights. He stressed the union is prepared to fight back on any attempt to weaken union rights or target worker protections and working conditions.

"It's also very important, I think, for the public to be reminded that good living-wage jobs help our communities," Dimondstein added. "They help make them stronger. That's good jobs, turnover in the community to restaurants to small retail stores to housing."

According to the union, privatization would eliminate more than 600,000 living-wage union jobs, including more than 70,000 military veterans. As of last November, the Postal Service employed more than 7,000 Kentucky workers.